Sports betting free predictions of the future

Sports betting free predictions of the future

If you dont understand the context behind your numbers, no amount of advanced analysis and complicated algorithms is going to help you make sense of them.

You need discipline because it is very easy to lock in on a particular theory and only pay attention to the data points that confirm that theory.

A good practice is to always set aside a portion of your data before you start analysing.

Once youve built what you think is your best model or theory, you can then test it against this alternative dataset.

Sports data yields random results, and the market is no more accurate than it was 16 years ago.

Id say the most surprising phenomena in sports data sets is the inherent randomness in most sports outcomes and the lack of repeatability.

For example, in the NFL, the occasions when a team wins possession of the ball through a defensive action appear to be largely random, with little correlation from week to week.

This fact can lead to potential betting opportunities as the market appears to give more weight to defensive turnovers than what the data indicate.

Whats more, despite all the extra data we now have access to today, the market does not appear to be getting more accurate, at least when it comes to the NFL.

From 1989 to 2000, the bookies favourite won.7 of the time.

Between 20, the bookies favourite won.9 of the time.

Despite all the extra data we now have access to today, the market does not appear to be getting more accurate, at least when it comes to the NFL.

Statistics dont always take the bigger picture into account.

Some sports statistics that are traditionally considered to be useful are in fact very misleading.

One example of this is clean-sheets for goalkeepers.
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