Ivy league football predictions

Ivy league football predictions
the league title in 49 percent of simulations.

The Tigers and Bulldogs seem to be in a tier of their own, as the next likeliest teams to win a share of the title are Penn, at 19 per- cent; Dartmouth, at 19 percent; and Harvard, at 15 percent.

Title probabilities sum to more than 100 percent due to the fact that more than one school can win an Ivy League title, and any school with the best conference record is considered a co-champion.

It may come as something of a surprise that Yale is not pegged as championship favorite given its record-setting dominance last season and the fact that the Elis were picked as favorites by the annual media preseason poll heading into 2018.

The difference in media predictions and statistically derived predictions has three main causes.

The first is that the Bulldogs were nowhere near as good during the 20easons as they were in their run to the title last year, but this old data is still included in the model albeit heavily weighted down compared to 2017.

There are very few games in a single season, and as a result, luck drives a lot of variance within a single season that is reduced over longer time periods.

The second and, in my opinion, more fundamental reason the model of the Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group, or yusag, favors Princeton this year is in large part bad luck last year.

While fans might remember a 34 campaign in a down year following a 2016 Ancient Eight crown, the Tigers four conference losses came by a combined 11 points, and their net point differential of 66 was second only to Yales.

Finally, Princeton has four conference games at home this season compared to Yales three.

Holding all other factors equal, playing at home increases a teams chances to win a game by about 6 percent over a neutral field and 12 percent over a road game.

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